Make your own free website on Tripod.com

THERMEX Quenched & Tempered Rebars

THE YEARS AHEAD: 2005 - 2020

SECTION 1: Steel 2020
Basic Global Norms
Comparison: India & China
THE YEARS AHEAD: 2005 - 2020
SECTION 2: Relevance of Thermex Rebars
Global Trends in Rebars
Relevance of THERMEX Quenching & Tempering Technology
H&K India Thermex References and Photos of Installations

Forecast for 2020

There is no doubt that India will strive to achieve the status of a global economic and industrial power by 2020 – and will become one. While most people in the steel industry, given India’s past track record, believe that the Joint Planning Committee target of an increase of 70mT to 100 mT by 2018 is not attainable this writer opines that this is rather conservative.

 

We cannot have just a few pockets of development. Instead, one foresees that due to political compulsions, irrespective of the party in power at the Centre, the Government policies will lay stress on development of the vast areas that have hitherto been neglected – alongside the liberalisation and open market policy of recent years. Infrastructure improvement across the country is a prime requisite to further development. For this, India will necessarily need to reach a per capita steel consumption of at least 100 kg, if not more, by 2020. The ratio of long to flat products will also be set right to about 55% long and 45% flat. It is unlikely that past mistakes will be repeated.

 

With an estimated population of around 1.4 billion in 2020, this level of consumption will mean a steel requirement of about 140 million tonnes per year – or an increase of 110 mT in 16 years (2005-2020) from the current level. This is definitely feasible if one considers that China increased its production by 70 mT (130 to 200 mT) in 4 years from 2000 to 2003. India can do it too, and will, even though it involves an investment of about Rs 3,000,000 million (3 lakh crore) in 16 years. If we do not achieve this production level massive imports will surely be resorted to - because development is not going to stop merely because the steel industry is not up to the challenge. It is entirely up to the industry.

 

This estimate is shown in Chart 4.

chart-4.jpg
Chart 4: Steel in India - Projections for 2020

The 55% share of long products amounts to 77 mT in 2020 with the balance 65 mT to be accounted for by flat. Out of 77 mT long products, the requirement of steel reinforcement bars (rebars) will be about 35 mT or a five fold jump from the present level of 6.5 - 7 mT. Special stress will therefore be on Rebar Mills. This has traditionally been a neglected area and a study of the small rebar mills currently being set up reveals that even today proper planning is not exercised. This is a cause for great concern and money will surely have to be spent in a better manner as large amounts are involved.

 

Since infrastructure will play an important role till 2020 we now examine the rebar sector.

THERMEX is a registered trademark of H&K Rolling Mill Engineers Pvt. Ltd. in India and is owned by HSE, Germany in other Countries